Expert Guidance in Fragile and Frontier Markets

Rick Morgan

Rick Morgan is a social science professional specializing in conflict analysis, forecasting, and advanced analytics. Shaped by his prior experience as a U.S. Army Psychological Operations Specialist, he brings a mission-focused approach to every project. His work has taken him to conflict and post-conflict areas around the globe—Afghanistan, Kosovo, India, Iraq, Liberia, and Niger—where he has assessed the social dynamics of post-conflict reconciliation, the impact of development projects on local support preferences, and the relationships between local institutions, service delivery and social cohesion.

In his most recent roles at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Rick integrated conflict insights into the global food security models of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), ensuring that humanitarian assistance reached the most vulnerable in a timely, data-driven manner. He also served as a Senior Data Scientist at USAID’s Center for Conflict and Violence Prevention, leading the creation of machine learning, statistical modeling, and AI tools to inform large-scale development and stabilization efforts. Prior to his time at USAID, Rick built forecast models for governance changes as Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Varieties of Democracy Institute, honing his skills in advanced analytics to address challenges at the intersection of policy and research.

Rick earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from Emory University, specializing in conflict analysis and both quantitative and qualitative research methods. His scholarship appears in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Global Security Studies, and Democratization. He lives in Washington, D.C. with his wife and dog, continuing to explore innovative ways that data science and social science can converge to improve outcomes in complex environments.